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Elections

This category contains 45 posts

Republicans, Immigration and a Blue Texas

The growing importance of immigration and the Hispanic vote is further highlighted in this piece from the New Yorker. It offers the slightly surreal prospect of a Democrat voting Texas as a potential outcome of Republican immigration policy. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/11/19/121119fa_fact_lizza Advertisements

Black Candidates in 2012

The underrepresentation of African Americans in US politics is a key issue in the ‘Race and Ethnicity’ topic this excellent piece in the Washington Post examines the problems faced by African Americans in the 2012 Congressional elections. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/14/a-very-tough-election-for-black-candidates-not-named-obama/

Campaign finance

An excellent piece from the NY Times looking at the background of Citizens United and the implications of the new funding climate on the 2012 election. http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/campaign_finance/index.html

Ethnic Minority Voters 2012

The outcome of the 2012 election could be determined by the electoral preferences of minority groups. The African American population in America has supported the Democrat Party since they became partr of the New Deal Coalition in the 1930s. In 2012 it is not whether or not African Americans will vote for Obama but whether … Continue reading

The Debate

Romney clearly won the first Presidential Debate but one strong performance will not be enough to resurrect his faltering campaign. The impact of the debate and Romney’s short lived revival in the polls is discussed in the following two articles. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/08/romney-debate-bounce-real-but-fading?INTCMP=SRCH http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/07/henry-porter-obama-romney-debate/print

Obama= Reagan

This is quite a long article but it is definitely worth reading. This piece from Newsweek is comparing Reagan and Obama. Although this superficially seems to be a futile exercise the notion that Reagan is a seminal President for the Republicans and that Obama could become one for the Demcorats is significant. This piece has … Continue reading

The Electoral College

The Electoral College is the defining process behind the election of a US President. That check on the excesses of democracy put in place by the Founding Fathers dominates discussion of presidential¬†elections because ultimately however many votes you win won’t help you if you can’t convert it into electoral college votes (just ask the Bull … Continue reading

Swing States

Ultimately most US Presidential elections boil down to the behaviour of voters in Swing States- we all know how Texas and New York will vote in November, the interesting part of US election night is always what happens in the ‘purple’ states with no defined, predictable Republican or Democrat tendencies. This excellent graphic from the … Continue reading

A divided nation?

We keep telling you this but the single most important narrative in American politics is the process of partisan polarisation. This trend influences almost every aspect of American politics and was clearly evident at the Party Conferences. This piece from today’s¬†Guardian suggests that the two conventions showcased two very different parties: one, the Democrats driven … Continue reading

Negative Campaigning

Negative campaigning is the process of discrediting your opponent rather than focusing on your own attributes. It has been on the rise in American poltics for a while and is closely linked to the process of political polarisation. Negative campaigning has long been associated with disillusionment and political apathy and the continued rise of negative … Continue reading

Newsweek on Obama

There are two excellent pieces available on the Newsweek website. The first is written by the British historian Niall Fergusson (who has Republican sympathies) examine why Obama deserves to be defeated in November. There are lots of examples of what Fergusson refers to as broken promises. http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/08/19/niall-ferguson-on-why-barack-obama-needs-to-go.html The inability of Obama to deliver what he … Continue reading

Incumbency in Congress

Congressional incumbency rates have been tumbling in recent years as more radical politicians challenge incumbent candidates. However, the success of Rep Charles Rangal and Sen Orrin Hatch provide good cases of the incumbent prevailing. Rangal is also an interesting case study of African- American representation although the redistricting of his Haarlem seat has seen it … Continue reading

Immigration

Immigration is a key ‘wedge issue’ in US politics and has been receiving a lot of coverage in the American press recently. Obama’s announcement to suspend deportations of illegal migrants under 30 who contribute to US society is seen by many as a ploy to win over key Latino voters in 2012. Coverage of his … Continue reading

Duverger’s Law

Duverger’s Law is a classic piece of political science. Maurice Duverger writing in the 1950s stated that plurality electoral systems led to 2 party party systems. This post from Patrick Dunleavy on the LSE politics blog suggests that outside of the USA Duverger’s Law is a dead parrot. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/2012/06/18/duvergers-law-dead-parrot-dunleavy/#more-24544 This post is packed with excellent … Continue reading

Obama and Gay Marriage

Obama’s decision to say he supports Gay Marriage is a high risk strategy. While it will appeal to his core vote and particularly his donors. It will however potentially alienate Republicans and socially¬†conservative African Americans- this could be risky in especially in some swing states. This piece from the Washington post examines how the issue … Continue reading